ASEAN Nuclear Power Quest: A Reality For Philippines And Indonesia Soon?
Nuclear Energy and Government in ASEAN
Nuclear energy is an attractive option for ASEAN countries due to its capacity to provide a significant, constant, and low-carbon energy source. Its low carbon footprint, combined with its high energy output, positions nuclear power as a viable solution for ASEAN's increasing energy needs and environmental responsibilities. However, ASEAN's unique situation presents substantial hurdles to the successful integration of nuclear power. Aside from the technical and environmental challenges, the highly politically sensitive nature of nuclear energy further complicates its adoption in the ASEAN region. Energy policies in several ASEAN countries have shown a propensity to shift dramatically following political power transitions. This phenomenon could significantly hinder long-term planning and implementation of nuclear power programs, given their extended timeframe and immense capital requirements. Often, incoming administrations in ASEAN nations prioritise immediate economic needs over long-term sustainability and energy security. The transition from one administration to another can lead to a significant shift in policy direction, even to the point of abandoning well-developed programs initiated by predecessors.
Case Study: Malaysia's Shift Away from Nuclear Energy
Consider Malaysia's nuclear power program as an example. The preliminary work commenced in 2008, with the development of Malaysia's Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) initially overseen by the Nuclear Power Development Steering Committee. In 2009, then-Prime Minister Najib Razak unveiled a plan to establish a small-scale nuclear reactor. By 2011, the Malaysia Nuclear Power Cooperation (MNPC) was established as a Nuclear Energy Program Implementing Organization (NEPIO). Positioned under the Prime Minister's Department, MNPC took on the functions of the Nuclear Power Development Steering Committee. Alongside the establishment of MNPC, a budget of USD7.69 million from 2010–2012 highlighted Malaysia's strong commitment to NPP development. The initial plan was to have two NPPs operating by 2021. However, after Prime Minister Najib Razak's term ended in 2018, his successor Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad asserted that Malaysia would not pursue nuclear power plants. Consequently, plans were indefinitely postponed, leading to the disbandment of the Nuclear Power Cooperation in 2018. Given Malaysia's rising energy needs, nuclear power seems justified, but the new administration shifted focus to renewable sources like solar instead.
Current Status of Nuclear Development in Indonesia and the Philippines
Indonesia and the Philippines have recently embarked on ambitious programs to establish nuclear power. Both countries have successfully completed Phase 1 of the Integrated Nuclear Infrastructure Review (INIR) assessment in 2009 and 2018 respectively. Indonesia is prepared for Phase 2 in 16 out of 19 nuclear infrastructure elements, with measures to address the remaining aspects underway, while the Philippines is working to overcome nine challenges identified by the 2018 INIR assessment.
Indonesia, under President Widodo's administration, reaffirms its nuclear commitment in its Energy Sector Roadmap Towards Net Zero Emission 2060, planning nuclear plant development by 2039. In parallel, the Philippines, led by President Marcos, is bolstering its nuclear program in response to escalating energy needs, expensive electricity, and a heavy reliance on coal imports. The Philippine Department of Energy proposes a strategic energy plan envisioning the establishment of eight 150 MW small modular reactors (SMR) by 2032, with an additional 1,200 MW of nuclear capacity by 2035.
As Indonesia and the Philippines are pursuing nuclear energy to enable clean energy transitions, attracting interest from both government and private sector stakeholders. Major companies like Indonesian firm Pupuk Kalimantan Timur are exploring SMRs for green hydrogen and ammonia production to achieve net zero emissions goals. At the same time, U.S. companies NuScale and ThorCon are in talks with Indonesia and the Philippines to potentially deploy their SMR technologies, with Indonesia Power partnering with NuScale on a feasibility study. Russia's Rosatom has also been in discussions about building a floating nuclear power plant in Indonesia.
Analysis of Future Prospects for Nuclear Programs in Indonesia and the Philippines
As Indonesia and the Philippines explore nuclear power to meet future energy needs, examining each country's current readiness and political landscape is crucial to assessing the prospects and challenges involved in establishing nuclear power programs. This article aims to analyse the status of nuclear energy development in both nations.
To start with the readiness for nuclear power implementation, Indonesia appears more prepared to progress to Phase 2 according to the INIR 2009 assessment, compared to the Philippines. However, Indonesia still lacks readiness in three crucial areas: the national position, the formation of a Nuclear Energy Program Implementing Organization (NEPIO), and stakeholder involvement. Agus Puji Prasetyo, a member of the Indonesian Energy Council (DEN) and Chairman II of the Preparatory Team for the Formation of NEPIO, asserts that efforts are underway to bridge these gaps. A functioning NEPIO is anticipated by the end of 2023. Conversely, the Philippines faces its own obstacles, with nine of its nuclear energy infrastructure elements deemed unprepared for Phase 2 by the INIR 2018 assessment. Nevertheless, the Philippines has pledged to overcome these shortcomings by the end of 2023.
Examining the political climate, Indonesia, as the world's third-largest democracy, is preparing for its presidential election on February 14, 2024. The end of President Joko Widodo's second term has paved the way for a closely contested race with Prabowo Subianto, Ganjar Pranowo, and Anies Baswedan being the promising candidates. The diverse democratic platform offers citizens dynamic participation in national governance, making the election a significant determinant of policy continuity and democratic trajectory. On the other hand, the Philippines inaugurated its President in June 2022, who is committed to considering nuclear power as a potential solution for the country's growing electricity demands. This commitment stems from challenges such as heavy reliance on coal imports from Indonesia (now halted due to a ban on exports) and the expected depletion of the Malapaya gas field, which currently provides 40% of the electricity for Luzon Island. The goal is to fully electrify the Philippines by 2028, a task complicated by an expected surge in peak demand to 25,000 megawatts, requiring an additional 8,000 megawatts of power within the next five years. Thus, the Department of Energy (DOE) of the Philippines underscores the urgency of these developments.
Given President Marcos' 6-year term, the nuclear energy program in the Philippines seems robust for the near future. Therefore, it is possible for the Philippines to build a nuclear power plant within President Marcos' term. An SMR has a projected construction time of three to five years. Meanwhile, the future of Indonesia's nuclear energy program seems uncertain with the upcoming presidential elections in 2024. The stance of the incoming administration on nuclear energy, which will likely be influenced by the policies of the three promising candidates - Prabowo Subianto, Ganjar Pranowo, and Anies Baswedan - will determine the future course of the nuclear energy program in Indonesia.
Philipines Closer to Achieving Nuclear Power Aspirations
Based on the analysis provided, the Philippines appears to have a clear advantage in the near-term development of its first operated nuclear reactor, particularly when compared to Indonesia. With President Marcos's six-year term currently in place, the nuclear energy program in the Philippines is poised for significant progress. This urgency is driven by the Philippines' escalating energy needs, high electricity costs, and heavy reliance on coal imports, all of which create a compelling case for the immediate utilisation of nuclear energy.
Indonesia has outlined a more distant target of 2039 for its first nuclear power plant, a plan that spans three governmental administrations. This introduces a substantial risk of fluctuating priorities and potential policy shifts due to Southeast Asia's changing political dynamics, as evidenced by Malaysia's nuclear power program. While Indonesia's long-term intentions are clear, the likelihood of near-term progress seems more prominent in the Philippines. Without a strong and unwavering commitment from successive Indonesian governments towards the nuclear energy program, the Philippines, with its immediate focus and robust planning, appears poised to be the first ASEAN country to operate a nuclear power plant.
